How important is age in the development of progressive MS?

More about ageing and MS; this time about the development of progressive MS. 




The main message below is that most pwMS who are destined to develop progressive MS do so before age 75 and the onset of this phase of the disease is more dependent on age than the duration of MS.

Does this mean you are all destined to develop progressive MS? No in this study only 38% people with RRMS went onto develop progressive MS by age 75. Why some RRMSers don’t develop progressive MS is probably due to biological factors and DMTs.

So the message in this post is mixed, i.e. the onset of the progressive phase of MS is age-dependent and not all pwRRMS become progressive.

This is no consolation for PPMSers. However, with the licensing of ocrelizumab for treating early-active PPMS we now have a DMT that can modify the course of PPMS, despite the treatment response to ocrelizumab being age-related. As with RRMS is better to treat PPMS as soon as possible after the onset of the disease; there is no point in waiting to lose reserve and neurological function and the advantage of youth before starting ocrelizumab.

The important question from a biological perspective is how is age modifying the course of MS and is there anything we can do to slow down or stop the ravages of ageing? I would start with a Brain Healthy Lifestyle. However, ageing is a biological programme and I have little doubt that scientists will crack the code and identify pathways that are modifiable. One hurdle still exists, however, society still considers ageing a normal phenomenon. Until we redefine ageing as a disease and healthcare payers agree to pay for anti-ageing treatments the incentive for Pharma to invest in ageing research won’t materialise anytime soon.

We have had this debate before on the blog. Do you agree that ageing is a disease? 


I would be interested in your thoughts on the issues above. 
Tutuncu, et al. Onset of Progressive Phase is an Age Dependent Clinical Milestone in Multiple Sclerosis. Mult Scler. 2013 Feb; 19(2): 188–198.

Background: It is unclear if all patients with RRMS ultimately develop progressive MS. Onset of progressive disease course seems to be age- rather than disease duration dependent. Some forms of progressive MS (e.g. PPMS) are uncommon in population-based studies. Ascertainment of patients with PPMS from clinic-based populations can facilitate a powerful comparison of age-of-progression-onset between SPMS and PPMS but may introduce unclear biases.

Objective: To confirm that onset of progressive disease course is more relevant to patient’s age than the presence or duration of a pre-progression relapsing disease course in MS.

Methods: We studied a population-based MS cohort (n=210, relapsing-remitting MS n=109, progressive MS n=101) and a clinic-based progressive MS cohort (n=754). Progressive course was classified as primary- (PPMS; n=322), single attack- (SAPMS; n=112) and secondary-progressive (SPMS; n=421). We studied demographics (chi2 or t-test), age-of-progression-onset (t-test) and time-to-EDSS6 (Kaplan-Meier analyses).

Results: Sex-ratio (p=0.58), age-of-progression-onset (p=0.37) and time-to-EDSS6 (p=0.16) did not differ between the cohorts. Progression had developed before age 75 in 99% of patients with known progressive disease course; 38% with RRMS did not develop progression by age 75. Age-of-progression-onset did not differ between SPMS (44.9±9.6), SAPMS (45.5±9.6) and PPMS (45.7±10.8). In either cohort, only 2% of patients had reached EDSS 6 before the onset of progression.

ConclusionsPatients with RRMS do not inevitably develop progressive disease course. Onset of progression is more dependent on age than the presence or duration of a pre-progression symptomatic disease course. Moderate disability is sustained predominantly after the onset of a progressive disease course in MS.

ProfG    
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How easy is it to design an algorithm to sequence DMTs?

Last week DrK and I joined an esteemed panel of academic neurologists (all male, unfortunately*) to discuss issues around the sequencing of DMTs.



*We need more women on platforms such this and other MS-related committees. The gender divide is very large in the field of MS. It is very embarrassing to me as a father and husband; my daughters and my wife are card-carrying feminists and every bit as capable as their male peers.  


The following is my presentation that many of you requested. You can download it from SlideShare.

Sequencing of DMTs is a very hot topic and increasingly relevant to how we select DMTs today. What factors do we need to consider when choosing DMTs to make sure it is safe to transition patients onto in the future? 

When making a choice of DMT have you asked your neurologist what drug x does do your future DMT choices? This is something that is becoming increasingly important when selecting DMTs. 

Please stop to think and to ask questions. 

Getting it right the first time is more important than you realise. 

ProfG    
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Does your age predict how well you respond to DMTs?

Did you know that if you have MS and are older than 53 years of age you are unlikely to respond to DMTs?





Statistical Speak: A regression analysis, described in the meta-analysis below, predicts zero efficacy of DMTs beyond approximately age 53 years. 

Plain English: Age is an important confounder when it comes to disability progression. Based on published data pwMS who are older than 53 years of age don’t respond to DMTs when it comes to slowing down worsening disability. Are you surprised? 

Did you know that age is the most powerful predictor of developing ‘progressive MS’? We need to tackle ageing and its impact on worsening MS. The evidence that early, or premature, ageing from the reduced brain, and cognitive, reserve drives worsening of MS in older pwMS. We urgently need methods to dissect-out premature ageing from MS-specific disease mechanisms. The other issue with ageing is the emergence of comorbidities as a driver of worsening MS; in particular, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, metabolic syndrome, diabetes and a sedentary lifestyle. The latter is the proverbial ‘elephant in the room’. 

The meta-analysis also differentiates the high-efficacy DMTs from the low-efficacy DMTs. Surprise, surprise the high-efficacy drugs outperform low-efficacy drugs in slowing down MS disability worsening, but this was only noted for pwMS who were younger than 40.5 years.

Do you think regulators and payers should take age into account when licensing and paying for access to DMTs? 

P.S. This meta-analysis only tells half the story and does not take into account new insights, in particular, therapeutic lag. What the analysis is looking at is short-term observations across 2-3 years of phase 3 trials. With more advanced MS (and age) brain and spinal cord reserve are reduced and it, therefore, takes longer to see a treatment effect. So older people may see an effect, it will just take longer for it to manifest. I have plenty of examples (anecdotes in MedicSpeak) of more mature or older pwMS responding to DMTs. This analysis, however, does support the treat early and effectively philosophy; protecting Brain is easier when you have reserve and age on your side. 

Weideman et al. Meta-analysis of the Age-Dependent Efficacy of Multiple Sclerosis Treatments. Front Neurol. 2017 Nov 10;8:577. doi: 10.3389/fneur.2017.00577
OBJECTIVE: To perform a meta-analysis of randomized, blinded, multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials, to test the hypothesis that efficacy of immunomodulatory disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) on MS disability progression is strongly dependent on age.

METHODS: We performed a literature search with pre-defined criteria and extracted relevant features from 38 clinical trials that assessed efficacy of DMTs on disability progression. We fit a linear regression, weighted for trial sample size, and duration, to examine the hypothesis that age has a defining effect on the therapeutic efficacy of immunomodulatory DMTs.

RESULTS: More than 28,000 MS subjects participating in trials of 13 categories of immunomodulatory drugs are included in the meta-analysis. The efficacy of immunomodulatory DMTs on MS disability strongly decreased with advancing age (R2 = 0.6757, p = 6.39e-09). Inclusion of baseline EDSS did not significantly improve the model. The regression predicts zero efficacy beyond approximately age 53 years. The comparative efficacy rank derived from the regression residuals differentiates high- and low-efficacy drugs. High-efficacy drugs outperform low-efficacy drugs in inhibiting MS disability only for patients younger than 40.5 years.

CONCLUSION: The meta-analysis supports the notion that progressive MS is simply a later stage of the MS disease process and that age is an essential modifier of a drug efficacy. Higher efficacy treatments exert their benefit over lower efficacy treatments only during early stages of MS, and, after age 53, the model suggests that there is no predicted benefit to receiving immunomodulatory DMTs for the average MS patient.

ProfG    
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Is there someone you want to hear from?

You will have noticed over the last 5 months that we have been trying to get more guest bloggers engaged with our blog. We would love to increase the volume of guest posts to increase the diversity of opinions and topics on all things MS. Variety is the spice of life and a lot of what we have to say is repetition. 

We don’t want to bore you! You need to hear from other experts in the field. If you know someone engaged in MS who has something to say please ask them to contact us (bartsmsblog@gmail.com) about doing a guest post.





This is a call to potential guest bloggers. If you have done a piece of research and you want to communicate it people with MS, and other MS stakeholders, please contact us (bartsmsblog@gmail.com).

Your intentions should be altruistic and in keeping with our blogging philosophy. We do not want to monetize the blog, therefore, no advertising or links to commercial sites. Please remember the views presented in each post have to be yours and have nothing to do with Barts-MS and our organisations (Queen Mary Universty London & Barts Health NHS Trust). We are also are not a platform for pseudo, or fake, science, nor fake news or alternative facts. We will, therefore, have final editorial control over what we accept and publish on the blog.

To post you have to provide a lay summary of the work with a link to the publication. In addition, we need a short biography, a disclosure statement and a picture. It is important that the readers know who you are. We also expect all guest bloggers to come back to the blog frequently to answer any questions from our readers. 


Thank You! 

Do you want to learn about MS and live in the Middle and Far East?

It is clear that the incidence and prevalence of MS are increasing globally. We are in the throes of an MS pandemic. The one region that is documenting and seeing this change in MS epidemiology is the Middle East and North Africa. 


In response to the unmet need, Barts-MS have been invited by the Alfaisal University and Global Academy for Health Sciences (GAHS) to run an MS teaching course in Dubai on the 30th & 31st March 2018. You may be interested in attending.


ProfG    
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Tragic news: have you had your flu jab?

I have just heard the tragic news that one of my patients, who was admitted to intensive care over the weekend with pneumonia as a complication of influenza,  sadly passed away last night. I called the patient’s partner to express my sympathy and was surprised to hear that she had not had this season’s flu jab. This is a problem. 

We are in the throes of a major, and more virulent, flu epidemic than usual. People with MS are at high risk and are therefore eligible for the dwindling stocks of this season’s flu vaccine. There has been a national appeal for all high-risk patients to get vaccinated. 

If you live in the UK and have not yet had the vaccination please contact your GP for an appointment to have the vaccine. In some parts of the country, you can get vaccinated by your pharmacist. For more information please read the NHS webpage on the vaccine. 

ProfG    
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Comorbidties and smoking, what can we do about them?

The elephant in the room is comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome and smoking. How can we get pwMS to take their general health seriously? 



In the study below physical comorbidity was not only associated with disability but with each additional comorbidity, there was a mean increase in the EDSS score of 0.18. By optimising your general health you will reduce your chances of getting worse. 

When last have you been to your family doctor, or GP, to have your blood pressure, weight, blood sugar and lipids checked? If you haven’t had these done in the last 12 months you should go and get them done. 

Are you still a smoker? If yes, you need to read the second paper below that shows smoking reduces the effectiveness of interferon-beta. I wouldn’t be surprised if this observation extends to other DMTs. We know that pwMS who smoke do worse than non-smokers. So if you want to improve your outcome you need to stop smoking. Please note you don’t have to necessarily give up your nicotine habit. You can get your daily fix of nicotine from several other safer options (gum, skin patches, tablets, e-cigarettes, etc.). 

COMORBIDITIES

Zhang et al. Effects of physical comorbidities on disability progression in multiple sclerosis. Neurology. 2018 Jan 3. pii: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000004885.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between physical comorbidities and disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS).


METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked health administrative and clinical databases in 2 Canadian provinces. Participants included adults with incident MS between 1990 and 2010 who entered the cohort at their MS symptom onset date. Comorbidity status was identified with validated algorithms for health administrative data and was measured during the 1 year before study entry and throughout the study period. The outcome was the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score as recorded at each clinic visit. We used generalized estimating equations to examine the association between physical comorbidities and EDSS scores over time, adjusting for sex, age, cohort entry year, use of disease-modifying drugs, disease course, and socioeconomic status. Meta-analyses were used to estimate overall effects across the 2 provinces.

RESULTS: We identified 3,166 individuals with incident MS. Physical comorbidity was associated with disability; with each additional comorbidity, there was a mean increase in the EDSS score of 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09-0.28). Among specific comorbidities, the presence of ischemic heart disease (IHD) or epilepsy was associated with higher EDSS scores (IHD 0.31, 95% CI 0.01-0.61; epilepsy 0.68, 95% CI 0.11-1.26).

CONCLUSIONS: Physical comorbidities are associated with an apparent increase in MS disability progression. Appropriate management of comorbidities needs to be determined to optimize outcomes.


SMOKING


Petersen et al. Smoking affects the interferon beta treatment response in multiple sclerosis. Neurology. 2018 Jan 17. pii: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000004949.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether smoking in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with interferon beta (IFN-β) is associated with the relapse rate and whether there is an interaction between smoking and human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1*15:01, HLA-A*02:01, and the N-acetyltransferase-1 (NAT1) variant rs7388368A.


METHODS: DNA from 834 IFN-β-treated patients with RRMS from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Biobank was extracted for genotyping. Information about relapses from 2 years before the start of treatment to either the end of treatment or the last follow-up visit was obtained from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Register. Smoking information came from a comprehensive questionnaire.

RESULTS: We found that the relapse rate in patients with RRMS during IFN-β treatment was higher in smokers compared to nonsmokers, with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.021-1.416, p = 0.027) and with an IRR increase of 27% per pack of cigarettes per day (IRR 1.27, 95% CI 1.056-1.537, p = 0.012). We found no association or interaction with HLA and the NAT1 variant.

CONCLUSION: In this observational cohort study, we found that smoking is associated with increased relapse activity in patients with RRMS treated with IFN-β, but we found no association or interaction with HLA or the NAT1 variant.

ProfG    
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Has NICE got it wrong this time?

As you are probably aware NICE, true to past form, chose the Christmas period to toss a small grenade into the MS space. I assume they thought that by tossing it on Wednesday 20 December when most people were either away, or about to go away, on Christmas holidays the perceived explosion would be smaller than expected and the shrapnel would cause no collateral damage. NICE was wrong. They are wrong for several reasons.




At present the NICE ‘appraisal consultation document’ on the use of beta interferons and glatiramer acetate for treating MS in the NHS in England recommends that of these two classes of treatment that only Extavia is used to treat people with relapsing MS. Astonginglishly the appraisal states that Copaxone, Avonex, Betaferon, Plegridy and Rebif are not recommended. This proposed ruling only effects new patients; anyone already taking one of these drugs will not be affected by this guidance and can continue without change until they and their neurologist consider it appropriate to stop.

Shared-decision making

What about patient-engagement, shared-decision making, etc. The NHS has, or at least had, a policy of shared-decision making called concordance. This appraisal makes a mockery of shared decision-making. Extavia uses old technology. Of the interferon-beta preparations available it has the least friendly autoinjector and Novartis who market this product have not invested heavily in a support programme for patients starting Extavia. Our nurse specialists and pharmacists simply don’t consider Extavia a treatment option and would opt for one of the other preparations.

Immunogenicity

We know from many earlier studies that interferon-beta-1b (Betaferon & Extavia) is more immunogenic than the other interferons. Over 30% of patients treated with IFNbeta-1b develop neutralizing antibodies (NABs) that stop the drug working. Why would anyone prescribe a more immunogenic biologic when there are less immunogenic alternatives?

Innovation

This appraisal flies in the face of innovation. In fact is a kick in the teeth for innovation. Please note Avonex and Rebif have both been reformulated over their life cycles to improve their tolerability and immunogenicity. Plegridy is actually a new product; it uses pegylation to extend its circulating half-life. Plegridy investment and many years to be developed and licensed. What kind of message does this send to Pharma and academia about innovation? I thought NICE was meant to include innovation as one the variables they took into account when they made their decisions. In fact, why is Plegridy being considered part of this MTA (multi-technology appraisal)? Surely it deserves its own STA (single technology appraisal)?

On the cheap

Ever since the NICE turned down interferon-beta and GA as part of the initial tranche of single technology appraisals they have not changed the threshold for approving drugs. In other words, the cost per QALY that NICE deem cost-effective has been static for 15 years. Healthcare inflation has gradually reduced the actual cost per QALY that the NHS is prepared to pay for MS drugs. In addition, they have yet to incorporate indirect, in particular social, costs into their modelling. This explains why the NHS pays so little for MS DMTs. Is this fair? Patients in the USA are paying more than 5x the price for DMTs that we are. 


Please note that Pharma profits are used for all sorts of things including R&D and new drug development. Why should the USA taxpayer continue to subsidize drug development for the rest of the world, including Britain? Don’t you think at a political level the NHS should pull its weight? When you look at drug costs as a proportion of the NHS budget these are going down compared to other countries. Is it realistic to expect this to continue long-term?

Lowering the bar

Another potential problem is that NICE use incremental costing models; they compare new high-cost drugs to a reference drug. If the Extavia ruling stands then all new DMTs will be compared to Extavia, i.e. this will lower the cost-effective price for all new drugs and possible existing licensed drugs as they come up for renewal. This may have consequences for pwMS in the future, i.e. we may not get access to newer, high-cost, innovative drugs. Pharma may stop dealing with NICE because of the potential consequences for them across Europe. Please note that many countries use basket pricing, i.e. they set a price for DMTs in their countries based on the average across many countries. The UK price is in the basket. The problem arises is if the negotiated NHS price for a drug gets out; if it does it automatically lowers the cost of DMTs in countries using basket pricing. Pharma is becoming increasingly wary about doing deals like this with the NHS. There has already been an example of the NHS deal price getting out for one MS drug that impacted on prices across Europe.

Bad Pharma

The public perception is that Pharma is all bad. This is wrong. Pharma is a big contributor to the UK’s economy. All the MS Pharma companies employ a large number of people to support their innovator brands. If the Extavia ruling goes ahead I am sure many hundreds of people will lose their jobs. Should we care? Yes, we should. With Brexit looming every high-skilled job is valuable to this country. Employed people are what make an economy work. Punishing Pharma unnecessarily threatens the livelihood of many people and an important part of the UK economy. 


The problem with NICE is that its brief is very narrow, i.e. to save money for the NHS. NICE is very effective at doing that, but what about the impact of its decisions on the wider economy. Politicians really need to consider the wider impact of NICE on the UK-based Pharma industry. Since NICE was established almost all of the big Pharma have closed down their R&D labs in the UK and moved them elsewhere. Why? If the NHS doesn’t reward innovation and support Pharma then they will vote with their feet. The tragedy is that this has happened already and not easily reversed.

Summary



In summary, I think the NICE ‘appraisal consultation document’ is flawed with an undefined long-term impact for pwMS living with MS in the UK. It ignores patient choice and the principles of personalised medicine. It is not good for UK PLC. It sends out a very negative signal to Pharma, i.e. that it does not value innovation. The ruling will widen the gap between the UK and our other rich world partners. It is only a matter of time before NICE triggers a trade war with other rich countries over drug pricing. Several hundred high-skilled jobs will be lost as a result of this ruling and for what? The MS community has moved on and injectables are not used very often. Therefore a decision to save the NHS a very small amount of money will end up costing the UK much more in terms of future patient care and access to innovator drugs, reputation, jobs and future investment. I sincerely hope when NICE respond to feedback from the community common sense will prevail. 

ProfG    
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What is causing the MS pandemic?

Is it not the time to do something about the obesity pandemic? What has obesity got to do with MS? 



The latest data from Canada indicates that the prevalence and incidence of MS continues to increase; this is a trend across the world. Importantly, Canada may have just surpassed Scotland as the highest prevalence region of the world. Why is this happening? Why has MS become a pandemic? Is there anything we can do about this?


MS and other autoimmune diseases were very uncommon 150+ years ago. Our genetics haven’t changed and therefore there must be an environmental factor driving the increased incidence. Could it be the macroenvironment (climate, latitude, etc.) or the microenvironment (diet, smoking, exercise, etc.)? Many of the migration and genetic studies, particularly from Canada, would argue against the microenvironment being responsible. However, I am not so sure. 

Well known non-genetic risk factors for developing MS are EBV infection, particularly late infection, low vD levels or sunlight exposure and smoking. More recent factors that have emerged are child obesity and organic solvent exposure. 

I am particularly interested in obesity, which seems to be a real risk factor as it is supported by two Mendelian randomization studies. These show that those who are genetically predisposed to being obese have a  higher risk of getting MS. What is it about obesity that raises your risk of getting MS? Is it because adipose tissue is pro-inflammatory and stimulates autoimmunity secondarily? Could adipose tissue soak up circulating vD as it is a fat-soluble vitamin and lower vD levels? Or could obesity be the smoking gun and represent something in our diets that have triggered the epidemic? These are only a few of the hypotheses floating about amongst academic who think MS is a preventable disease. 

As always these observations are associations and not causal. To prove obesity is in the causal pathway will be a gargantuan task. But linking obesity to an increasing incidence of MS and other autoimmune diseases may help public health officials and politician do something about the obesity pandemic that threatens the planet. 

Multiple sclerosis: Prevalence and impact. The Daily, Wednesday, January 17, 2018.

Estimates from individual provinces suggest that the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) among Canadians may be one of the highest in the world. A new study released today in the publication Health Reports provides information on the impact MS has on people’s lives, such as mobility, pain, sleep and cognition. About two-thirds of those diagnosed reported that their lives were affected moderately, quite a bit, or extremely by MS. Although 57% of people with MS could walk without aid, almost one-third (31%) required a wheelchair, a mechanical aid such as a cane or walker, or the help of another person, and 12% could not walk at all. Just over half (53%) were usually pain-free, with the rest reporting pain that prevented a few activities (21%) or some/most activities (25%). Close to two-thirds (62%) experienced difficulty getting a good night’s sleep. Half (50%) of people whose only neurological condition was MS had difficulty remembering most things and/or thinking and solving problems. MS can be limiting in other ways. Close to one-third reported that it had prevented them from driving (30%), or compromised their educational opportunities (32%). More than half (58%) experienced at least some limitations in job opportunities. As well, 43% reported that MS had a negative impact on their social interactions, such as feeling left out, embarrassed, or that others felt uncomfortable around them or avoided them. This study also provides the most recent national prevalence estimates of MS. An estimated 93,500 Canadians living in private households and 3,800 in long-term care institutions reported a diagnosis of MS. At 290 cases per 100,000 in the household population, prevalence exceeded that in many other countries and was higher than reported in earlier Canadian studies. Women are two to three times more likely than men to have MS (2.6 women reported MS for every man with the condition). Unlike neurological disorders such as dementia and Parkinson’s disease that tend to develop at older ages, MS is more prevalent in younger adults. MS was diagnosed between the ages of 20 and 49 for 82% of those with the disorder.



Mokry et al. Obesity and Multiple Sclerosis: A Mendelian Randomization Study. PLoS Med. 2016 Jun 28;13(6):e1002053.


BACKGROUND: Observational studies have reported an association between obesity, as measured by elevated body mass index (BMI), in early adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, bias potentially introduced by confounding and reverse causation may have influenced these findings. Therefore, we elected to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate whether genetically increased BMI is associated with an increased risk of MS.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Employing a two-sample MR approach, we used summary statistics from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and the International MS Genetics Consortium (IMSGC), the largest genome-wide association studies for BMI and MS, respectively (GIANT: n = 322,105; IMSGC: n = 14,498 cases and 24,091 controls). Seventy single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genome-wide significant (p < 5 x 10-8) for BMI in GIANT (n = 322,105) and were investigated for their association with MS risk in the IMSGC. The effect of each SNP on MS was weighted by its effect on BMI, and estimates were pooled to provide a summary measure for the effect of increased BMI upon risk of MS. Our results suggest that increased BMI influences MS susceptibility, where a 1 standard deviation increase in genetically determined BMI (kg/m2) increased odds of MS by 41% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.41, 95% CI 1.20-1.66, p = 2.7 x 10-5, I2 = 0%, 95% CI 0-29). Sensitivity analyses, including MR-Egger regression, and the weighted median approach provided no evidence of pleiotropic effects. The main study limitations are that, while these sensitivity analyses reduce the possibility that pleiotropy influenced our results, residual pleiotropy is difficult to exclude entirely.

CONCLUSION: Genetically elevated BMI is associated with risk of MS, providing evidence for a causal role for obesity in MS etiology. While obesity has been associated with many late-life outcomes, these findings suggest an important consequence of childhood and/or early adulthood obesity.


Gianfrancesco et al. Causal Effect of Genetic Variants Associated With Body Mass Index on Multiple Sclerosis Susceptibility. Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Feb 1;185(3):162-171.



Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Recent studies indicate that childhood and adolescent obesity double the risk of MS, but this association may reflect unmeasured confounders rather than causal effects of obesity. We used separate-sample Mendelianrandomization to estimate the causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on susceptibility to MS. Using data from non-Hispanic white members of the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Plan of Northern California (KPNC) (2006-2014; 1,104 cases of MS and 10,536 controls) and a replication data set from Sweden (the Epidemiological Investigation of MS (EIMS) and the Genes and Environment in MS (GEMS) studies, 2005-2013; 5,133 MS cases and 4,718 controls), we constructed a weighted genetic risk score using 97 variants previously established to predict BMI. Results were adjusted for birth year, sex, education, smoking status, ancestry, and genetic predictors of MS. Estimates in KPNC and Swedish data sets suggested that higher genetically induced BMI predicted greater susceptibility to MS (odds ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.22 for the KPNC sample; odds ratio = 1.09, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.15 for the Swedish sample). Although the mechanism remains unclear, to our knowledge, these findings support a causal effect of increased BMI on susceptibility to MS for the first time, and they suggest a role for inflammatory pathways that characterize both obesity and the MS disease process.

ProfG    
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Is HSCT for everyone, or not?

The HSCT zealots would want you to believe that HSCT is the solution to MS and that we the neurologists are preventing you from accessing this curative treatment. Are they correct? Or do we need evidence from randomised trials?



I saw a patient for a third opinion late last year. She was in her mid-20s and had just failed alemtuzumab with a severe spinal cord relapse 19 months into her 2-year alemtuzumab treatment protocol. The question is what do we do now? She had previously failed interferon-beta and hence fulfilled our criteria for HSCT. When I mentioned to her that the risk of premature ovarian failure (early menopause) was over 40% with aHSCT and that she would need to freeze down eggs if she wanted to optimise her chances of having children in the future she answered an emphatic no. HSCT as a treatment option was too risky for her. This risk was not around the infectious complications, but fertility. 

Please note HSCT is not for everyone based on personal circumstances. This patient then opted for natalizumab treatment as her JCV serostatus was negative. I think the latter is a very wise choice given her wish to start a family in the future. 

I have commented extensively in the past on HSCT (both non-myeloablative and myeloablative) and I would urge you to reread my earlier post after the BBC Panorama programme on the topic. 

A large number of the HSCT zealots seem to ignore the fact that HSCT does not result in a cure in many pwMS treated with HSCT and that there is an issue of HSCT-related mortality. The latter is often conveniently ignored. 

The recent study by Sullivan and colleagues quote a 6% mortality rate at 6 years in patients with severe scleroderma treated with myeloablative HSCT compared to 0% in the standard cyclophosphamide group. One could argue that mortality rates are higher in this population than in people with MS. I suspect that this may be correct, but in the Murao et al. HSCT MS meta-analysis paper there were 37 deaths, out of 281 HSCT treated patients with MS or a 13% mortality rate, from any cause (treatment-related or not); 8 deaths or 2.8% were reported within 100 days from transplant and were considered transplant-related mortality. These figures are probably within the same range as those reported for other autoimmune diseases treated with HSCT. Are you prepared to take these risks? Not all pwMS are and we need to respect their decisions. 

How effective is HSCT? In the scleroderma study below the so called event-free survival rate at 54 months was 79% in the transplantation group compared to 50% in the cyclophosphamide group. What about MS? In the metanalysis below the 5-year probability of progression-free survival as assessed by the EDSS score was 46%. Is this better than alemtuzumab, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab or cladribine? Let’s generate the evidence from head-2-head studies and find out. 

The main message from this post is that HSCT is not that safe; HSCT has many short-term complications including a relatively high mortality and although its efficacy is high it is not necessarily higher than currently licensed DMTs. So don’t believe everything the HSCT zealots tell you or ask them to show you the data. 

Please note that we at Barts-MS do offer HSCT as a treatment option, but patients have to fulfil the criteria as set by the London MS-AHSCT Collaborative Group. We are not denying people with MS access to this treatment option. 

N Engl J Med. 2018 Jan 4;378(1):35-47.

BACKGROUND: Despite current therapies, diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (scleroderma) often has a devastating outcome. We compared myeloablative CD34+ selected autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation with immunosuppression by means of 12 monthly infusions of cyclophosphamide in patients with scleroderma.

METHODS: We randomly assigned adults (18 to 69 years of age) with severe scleroderma to undergo myeloablative autologous stem-cell transplantation (36 participants) or to receive cyclophosphamide (39 participants). The primary end point was a global rank composite score comparing participants with each other on the basis of a hierarchy of disease features assessed at 54 months: death, event-free survival (survival without respiratory, renal, or cardiac failure), forced vital capacity, the score on the Disability Index of the Health Assessment Questionnaire, and the modified Rodnan skin score.

RESULTS: In the intention-to-treat population, global rank composite scores at 54 months showed the superiority of transplantation (67% of 1404 pairwise comparisons favored transplantation and 33% favored cyclophosphamide, P=0.01). In the per-protocol population (participants who received a transplant or completed ≥9 doses of cyclophosphamide), the rate of event-free survival at 54 months was 79% in the transplantation group and 50% in the cyclophosphamide group (P=0.02). At 72 months, Kaplan-Meier estimates of event-free survival (74% vs. 47%) and overall survival (86% vs. 51%) also favored transplantation (P=0.03 and 0.02, respectively). A total of 9% of the participants in the transplantation group had initiated disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) by 54 months, as compared with 44% of those in the cyclophosphamide group (P=0.001). Treatment-related mortality in the transplantation group was 3% at 54 months and 6% at 72 months, as compared with 0% in the cyclophosphamide group. 

CONCLUSIONS: Myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation achieved long-term benefits in patients with scleroderma, including improved event-free and overall survival, at a cost of increased expected toxicity. Rates of treatment-related death and post-transplantation use of DMARDs were lower than those in previous reports of nonmyeloablative transplantation. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00114530 .).


IMPORTANCE: Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) may be effective in aggressive forms of multiple sclerosis(MS) that fail to respond to standard therapies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term outcomes in patients who underwent AHSCT for the treatment of MS in a large multicenter cohort.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were obtained in a multicenter, observational, retrospective cohort study. Eligibility criteria were receipt of AHSCT for the treatment of MS between January 1995 and December 2006 and the availability of a prespecified minimum data set comprising the disease subtype at baseline; the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at baseline; information on the administered conditioning regimen and graft manipulation; and at least 1 follow-up visit or report after transplant. The last patient visit was on July 1, 2012. To avoid bias, all eligible patients were included in the analysis regardless of their duration of follow-up. Data analysis was conducted from September 1, 2014 to April 27, 2015.

EXPOSURES: Demographic, disease-related, and treatment-related exposures were considered variables of interest, including age, disease subtype, baseline EDSS score, number of previous disease-modifying treatments, and intensity of the conditioning regimen.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were MS progression-free survival and overall survival. The probabilities of progression-free survival and overall survival were calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis models.

RESULTS: Valid data were obtained from 25 centers in 13 countries for 281 evaluable patients, with median follow-up of 6.6 years (range, 0.2-16 years). Seventy-eight percent (218 of 281) of patients had progressive forms of MS. The median EDSS score before mobilization of peripheral blood stem cells was 6.5 (range, 1.5-9). Eight deaths (2.8%; 95% CI, 1.0%-4.9%) were reported within 100 days of transplant and were considered transplant-related mortality. The 5-year probability of progression-free survival as assessed by the EDSS score was 46% (95% CI, 42%-54%), and overall survival was 93% (95% CI, 89%-96%) at 5 years. Factors associated with neurological progression after transplant were older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05), progressive vs relapsing form of MS (HR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.27-4.28), and more than 2 previous disease-modifying therapies (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.10-2.47). Higher baseline EDSS score was associated with worse overall survival (HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.40-2.95).



CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this observational study of patients with MS treated with AHSCT, almost half of them remained free from neurological progression for 5 years after transplant. Younger age, relapsing form of MS, fewer prior immunotherapies, and lower baseline EDSS score were factors associated with better outcomes. The results support the rationale for further randomized clinical trials of AHSCT for the treatment of MS.

ProfG    
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