#MSCOVID19: has coronavirus cancelled the flu season?

Barts-MS rose-tinted-odometer: ★★★★★

I think COVID-19 has just cancelled the flu season. 

I and many public health officials were very concerned that we were heading for a double-whammy this winter with a second and third surge of COVID-19 and a bad influenzae pandemic superimposed on it. It is looking like this may not happen. In the Southern hemisphere,  including my country South Africa, it seems as if the flu season was cancelled. Incredibly the number of documented annual cases has dropped by over 99% (see table below). 

Country201820192020
Argentina1517462353
Chile2439500712
Australia925993333
South Africa71110946
Documented cases April through mid-August. Source Science 28-Aug-2020

It is clear that the behavioural changes we have put in place, such as social distancing and wearing of masks, has prevented the spread of influenzae virus. Will these behaviours become the new norm during future flu seasons? I am not sure if people realise that influenzae is one of the biggest infectious disease killers each year so preventing the spread of the virus via behavioural change makes sense. 

Saying this the UK Government has just ordered many more doses of influenzae vaccines than it normally does and is extending the so-called at-risk adult group who can get the vaccine free on the NHS this year. 

Does this change our recommendations regarding getting the annual flu-jab? No, it doesn’t. All pwMS should take up the offer by the NHS to get the annual flu vaccine.

Please note, if you are severely immunosuppressed and have small children, please make sure they don’t get the live intranasal flu vaccine at school. There is a risk that this attenuated vaccine strain, which they may bring home, will cause disease in severely immunocompromised subjects. If you want your children to be vaccinated against influenza they will need to be given the component vaccine by injection. The latter is done via GP practices and some pharmacists. Please note it is only patients recently treated with alemtuzumab and HSCT that fall into this category.

I suspect that after reading the post on complications in the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine study many of you are nervous about vaccinations in general. Please don’t be. The regulatory authorities assess the efficacy and safety of all vaccines and make an informed decision that at a population level the risks justify the benefits. Influenzae vaccination is the most studied vaccine in pwMS and it has been shown to be safe, i.e. it does not appear to trigger relapses and/or MRI activity. 

CoI: multiple

Twitter: @gavinGiovannoni 

Medium: @gavin_24211

Flu, it’s not too late to be vaccinated

Barts-MS rose-tinted-odometer  ★★★

Not walking my talk. Having not taken up the NHS offer of the seasonal flu vaccine and having just spent the last 3 days bed-bound with severe flu I found the following research paper very timely. 

Using the Norwegian registries these investigators show that pwMS are much more susceptible to the complications of influenza, i.e. pwMS are much more likely to require emergency hospital admission as a result of influenza infection. Reasons for this are three-fold. Firstly, people with advanced MS may not have as strong gag and cough reflexes with a higher chance of aspiration of their secretions with secondary pneumonia. They may also have weakened respiratory muscles that increase their chances of getting a segmental collapse of their lungs and secondary pneumonia. Secondly, many pwMS are on immunosuppressive medications which blunt their immune response to the influenza virus making the virus more virulent and likely to affect multiple organ systems. Finally, on average pwMS have reduced resilience to infections independent of being on immunosuppressive medication, this probably relates to deconditioning, temperature-related conduction-block in response to fever and the fact that many pwMS are disabled. In summary, pwMS handled infections less well than the general population and are more likely to get complications. 

Disappointing is the observation that pandemic vaccination did not influence the risk of hospitalization in this study. I suspect this was because the pandemic vaccine used in this study epoch was not effective. 

Even if you don’t need hospitalisation having influenzae is very unpleasant and make your MS symptoms much worse. There have been some studies that have shown that not all patients recover back to their baseline when they get worsening of their MS symptoms in response to an infection. The latter observation would imply that the infection triggered an MS relapse. Avoiding infections is, therefore, one of our aims as part of the holistic management of MS.

As I sit here and type this blog post I am still incredibly tired with brain fog and many persistent symptoms that will take a week or more to clear. The physical symptoms are one thing, what about the social impact? I just spent the three days of the festive season in bed ignoring my family and social commitments. The bottom line is if you can avoid having flu, why wouldn’t you? It is not too late to be vaccinated. 

Ghaderi et al. Hospitalization following influenza infection and pandemic vaccination in multiple sclerosis patients: a nationwide population-based registry study from Norway. Eur J Epidemiol. 2019 Dec 23. doi: 10.1007/s10654-019-00595-2.

Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are at increased risk of infections and related worsening of neurological function. Influenza infection has been associated with increased risk of various neurological complications. We conducted a population-based registry study to investigate the risk of acute hospitalization of MS patients in relation to influenza infection or pandemic vaccination in Norway. The entire Norwegian population in the years 2008-2014 was defined as our study population (N = 5,219,296). Information on MS diagnosis, influenza infection and vaccination were provided by Norwegian national registries. The self-controlled case series method was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) in defined risk periods. 6755 MS patients were identified during the study period. Average age at first registration of an MS diagnosis was 51.8 years among men and 49.9 years among females (66.9%). The IRR for emergency hospitalization among MS patients the first week after an influenza diagnosis was 3.4 (95% CI 2.4-4.8). The IRR was 5.6 (95% CI 2.7-11.3) after pandemic influenza, and 4.8 (95% CI 3.1-7.4) after seasonal influenza. Pandemic vaccination did not influence risk of hospitalization [IRR within the first week: 0.7 (95% CI 0.5-1.0)]. Among MS patients, influenza infection was associated with increased risk for acute hospitalization while no increased risk was observed after pandemic vaccination. Influenza vaccination could prevent worsening of MS-related symptoms as well as risk of hospitalization.

CoI: multiple

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