The war on sugar (more posts below today)

Barts-MS rose-tinted-odometer ★★★ 

Just back from the NMSS ‘Pathways to Cures’ meeting in Washington DC during which we pledged to  STOP, RESTORE and END multiple sclerosis. 

The END refers to prevention. We discussed at the meeting modifiable risk factors that could be tackled to reduce the incidence (new cases) of MS and one risk factor childhood and adolescent obesity. One theory has been that obesity affects MS risk by interacting with vitamin D (vD); either by lowering levels due to the breakdown of vD in fat or secondary to systemic inflammation associated with obesity. 

In this genomics study below it is clear that obesity itself increases your risk of MS and is independent of vD levels. 

So how do we tackle obesity and the obesity epidemic? It is clear that obesity is caused by sugar and the change in the dietary guidelines that occurred in the 1970s and 1980s when governments launched a war on fats and started to promote a low-fat diet as being ‘heart-healthy’. We now know that the low-fat diet was wrong and that what was driving heart and vascular disease was processed carbohydrates, in particular, sugar consumption, and not saturated fats. Fortunately, the world is now beginning to acknowledge that saturated fats are healthy and that processed and ultra-processed foods, which are largely made up of carbohydrates and polyunsaturated fats are unhealthy culprits and are what is causing the obesity epidemic. 

This graph shows you the strong association between per capita sugar consumption and obesity. It is extraordinary that politicians are not doing more to tackle global sugar consumption.

Another factor driving obesity is our sedentary lifestyle and reduced exercise. 

To tackle obesity we need governments to declare ware on sugar and the food industry and to put in place national policies to tackle our sedentary lifestyle. This is easier said than done. Politicians are not as powerful as they used to be; most of them rely on lobby money to get elected and once elected they represent the vested interest groups that got them elected. Sadly this often includes sugar money. 

The sugar industry is heavily subsidised, which keeps the price of sugar artificially low. Sugar subsidies interfere with the global market and have resulted in a sugar glut. This is one of the reasons why junk food is so cheap and real-food is so expensive. 

Obesity is not only a risk factor for causing MS it also affects people with established MS.  Obesogenic diets cause a metabolic shitstorm that impacts on MS indirectly. Obesity causes metabolic syndrome (hypertension, insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, diabetes and dyslipidaemia) and a systemic inflammatory syndrome that worsens MS. Therefore, there is a good reason why, if you are obese you should consider doing something about it. 

I recommend you read “Why we get fat and what to do about it”, by Gary Taubes or you can watch one of his lectures on YouTube. Understanding the metabolic issues that underlie obesity will allow you to understand what to do about it.

Then there is the responsibility you have to your siblings, children and relatives. If you have MS your direct family are at increased risk of getting MS and you should get them to modify their risk factors, i.e. make sure they stay slim, or if they are obese they need to lose weight, get them to exercise and to start taking vD supplements. Tell them about the link between smoking and MS; they should either stop smoking or get them to pledge not to start smoking in the future. 

MS prevention is about education, education, education and education begins in the home. We estimate that ~15-20% of new cases of MS could be prevented by preventing childhood obesity and smoking. This is why we need to declare war on sugar and smoking as part of our END MS campaign. Do you agree?

Jacobs et al. BMI and Low Vitamin D Are Causal Factors for Multiple Sclerosis: A Mendelian Randomization Study. Neurol Neuroimmunol Neuroinflamm, 7 (2) 2020 Jan 14.

Objective: To update the causal estimates for the effects of adult body mass index (BMI), childhood BMI, and vitamin D status on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk.

Methods: We used 2-sample Mendelian randomization to determine causal estimates. Summary statistics for SNP associations with traits of interest were obtained from the relevant consortia. Primary analyses consisted of random-effects inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis, followed by secondary sensitivity analyses.

Results: Genetically determined increased childhood BMI (ORMS 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.45, p = 0.011) and adult BMI (ORMS 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.30, p = 0.042) were associated with increased MS risk. The effect of genetically determined adult BMI on MS risk lessened after exclusion of 16 variants associated with childhood BMI (ORMS 1.11, 95% CI 0.97-1.28, p = 0.121). Correcting for effects of serum vitamin D in a multivariate analysis did not alter the direction or significance of these estimates. Each genetically determined unit increase in the natural-log-transformed vitamin D level was associated with a 43% decrease in the odds of MS (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41-0.81, p = 0.001).

Conclusions: We provide novel evidence that BMI before the age of 10 is an independent causal risk factor for MS and strengthen evidence for the causal role of vitamin D in the pathogenesis of MS.

CoI: this work was done by our Preventive Neurology Unit

How much do you weigh?

Barts-MS rose-tinted-odometer  ★

When last have you weighed yourself and calculated your BMI (body mass index)? 

BMI = body mass (kg) / the square of the body height (m) [kg/m2]; to save you time and effort you can simply use the NHS BMI calculator, which takes imperial measurements as well. 

I am not sure if you are aware that childhood and adolescent obesity is an important risk factor for developing MS. We estimate that smoking and obesity could account for 1 in 5 new cases of MS. Obesity is a complex disorder that tends to run in families. The familial link is not only due to the effect of genes but cultural and social factors. If you are obese, or very obese, you need to do something at a personal level that may inform what the next generation does about it; good habits are infectious. 

I have little doubt that obesity impacts on MS outcomes. Obesity affects mobility and is associated with deconditioning and poorer outcomes. I recall a patient of mine with primary progressive MS losing over 30 kg in weight, with his BMI dropping from over 30 to less than 24, and in parallel, his EDSS improved from 6.5 to 5.5. The latter improvement was from him getting fit from his 5-day per week exercise programme and making the effort. 

As you are aware obesity is associated with a metabolic shitstorm that impacts on many disease processes. Obesity causes metabolic syndrome (hypertension, insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, diabetes and dyslipidaemia) and a systemic inflammatory syndrome that may worsen MS. Therefore, there is a good reason why, if you are obese you should consider doing something about it. This is easier said than done. To start I would recommend you read “Why we get fat and what to do about it”, by Gary Taubes or you can watch his lecture on YouTube. Understanding the metabolic issues that underlie obesity will allow you to understand what to do about it. The latest science behind obesity is not rocket science.

Why this post just before Christmas? Christmas is a time of excess and maybe this post will make you mindful of what and how you eat. I was horrified when I read the forecast in this week’s New England Journal of Medicine that by 2030 1 in 2 US adults will be obese. The conclusion of the paper says it all. 

“We project that given current trends, nearly 1 in 2 U.S. adults will have obesity (BMI>30) by 2030, and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state — a level currently considered high. Furthermore, our projections show that severe obesity (BMI>35) will affect nearly 1 in 4 adults by 2030 and become the most common BMI category among women, black non-Hispanic adults, and low-income adults.”

 Estimated Prevalence of Overall Obesity and Severe Obesity in Each US State, from 1990 through 2030. Image from the NEJM.

I suspect the UK is not far behind the US. What we need to realise that underlying this epidemic in obesity is an MS epidemic. Don’t you think we should do something about it?

Ward et al. Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity. N Engl J Med, 381 (25), 2440-2450 2019 Dec 19.

Background: Although the national obesity epidemic has been well documented, less is known about obesity at the U.S. state level. Current estimates are based on body measures reported by persons themselves that underestimate the prevalence of obesity, especially severe obesity.

Methods: We developed methods to correct for self-reporting bias and to estimate state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI). BMI data reported by 6,264,226 adults (18 years of age or older) who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias with the use of measured data from 57,131 adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We fitted multinomial regressions for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], <25), overweight (25 to <30), moderate obesity (30 to <35), and severe obesity (≥35). We evaluated the accuracy of our approach using data from 1990 through 2010 to predict 2016 outcomes.

Results: The findings from our approach suggest with high predictive accuracy that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. We predict that, nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2).

Conclusions: Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups. (Funded by the JPB Foundation.).

CoI: multiple

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