R-squared

Barts-MS rose-tinted-odometer: ★★★★★

R-squared = resilience x reciprocity

Resilience = the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness.

Reciprocity = the practice of exchanging things with others for mutual benefit, especially privileges granted by one country or organization or person to another.

Health and wellness can’t be taken for granted. For the body and mind to navigate life as best it can it needs to be prepared for its eventualities, which in some cases are a certainty. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, I actively promoted the concept of prehabilitation, i.e. doing everything you can do to improve your general health so that if you got COVID-19 you could deal with it and hopefully prevent yourself from getting severe COVID-19 and thereby reduce your chances of dying from the infection and/or its complications. 

Another way of looking at this concept is building ‘biological resilience’, in other words, maximising your ability to recover quickly or cope with difficult situations be they infections, trauma (falls and fractures), MS relapses or even disease worsening. 

Prehabilitation is preventive medicine. Prehabilitation is undertaking a health & wellness programme to deal with a known stressor in the near future. In surgery, this is typically a planned or an elective surgical procedure, such as a hip or knee replacement or cardiac surgery. However, widening the concept to medicine, for example, to include so-called known-knowns, unknown-knowns and known-unknowns in relation to immune therapies make sense. 

Known-knowns = these are adverse events that are known to occur in relation to specific immunotherapy, for example, hypogammaglobulinaemia from prolonged treatment with anti-CD20 therapy. In terms of a specific prehabilitation programme, you could check and manage hypogammaglobulinaemia as it develops or develop a new treatment paradigm (induction-maintenance) that derisks patients when they develop hypogammaglobulinaemia. 

Unknown-knowns = adverse events that have not been described yet, but based on scientific principles are likely to occur in the future, for example, meningococcal septicaemia and meningitis in patients on anti-CD20 therapy. This prediction based on the observation that people who have had a splenectomy or have low IgM levels from other causes are more susceptible to infections with so-called encapsulated bacteria such as meningococcus. In terms of incorporating this into a prehabilitation programme would be to offer patients the meningococcal vaccine if they are at high risk of being exposed to meningococcus (army recruits, university students, etc.). 

Known-unknowns = adverse events in people with other diseases on a particular treatment that has yet to be described in people with MS on the same treatment. For example, people with rheumatoid arthritis and lupus treated with ocrelizumab were more likely than control subjects to get pneumococcal pneumonia. Therefore, we can assume that pwMS on ocrelizumab are increased risk of pneumococcal infections. Part of the prehabilitation programme, to derisk this, would be to ensure all pwMS have the pneumococcal vaccine prior to starting an anti-CD20 therapy and to then have their boosters every 5 years. 

The examples I give above should be relatively easy to understand but are passive in that they rely on the HCPs to have systems in place to derisk specific MS DMTs. However, when it comes to optimising your general health so that you have biological resilience the story is different. Here you as pwMS need to engage with the general principles of prehabilitation and prepare yourself, for example, to help make sure the infections you acquire are mild and to maximise your chances of making an uncomplicated recovery. 

This is when reciprocity applies, i.e. the practice of exchanging knowledge with your HCP for mutual benefit. In other words, by you entering into a well-defined partnership with your HCP you will hopefully maximise your outcome and at the same time to reduce healthcare expenditure. In this partnership, your HCPs (neurologist, MS nurse, GP, etc.) will inform you of the aims of the programme, which may include some healthcare intervention, for example, vaccinations to prevent specific infections, an exercise programme to prevent falls, dietary advise to lose weight, medication to help you stop smoking, a social prescription for a personal trainer, which then it requires you to adhere to the programme. Reciprocal agreements are based on trust and only work if you trust each other (I wonder if the British and EU politicians understand this?). 

These concepts of resilience and reciprocity go well beyond the management of MS and apply to health in general and other social and political interactions. For example, in the UK the NHS will always look after you if you develop a disease, but the NHS or greater society are asking you to be more careful with your life choices so as to reduce your risk of getting certain diseases in later life. Unfortunately, the behavioural interventions that public health bodies and the NHS promote are not always backed-up by the actions of our politicians, for example, an adequate sugar tax or minimal pricing of a unit of alcohol to act as disincentives for obesity and its associated ills and alcohol misuse, respectively. 

Saying this I think we need to start activel working into our thinking ways to include R-squared into healthcare. What can we do to make the MS population more resilient? What do we need to do to remind both HCPs and pwMS that the optimal management of MS is based on reciprocity?

Having suffered a catastrophic loss of wellness with my recent accident makes me realise that my relatively rapid recovery has something to do with my general health and fitness (physiological resilience) and my determination to remain positive (mental resilience). However, my recovery back to a new normal now requires me to stick to my rehabilitation programme. The surgeons did what they were trained to do, i.e. fix and stabilise my fractures, and the next phase of my recovery is up to me. I have been given an exercise programme by my physiotherapists and medication to help deal with the pain. My part of the relationship is to take the medication and stick to my exercise programme. 

To paraphrase John F. Kennedy’s historic quote in his inaugural presidential lecture, “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country”. “Ask not what the NHS or your MS team can do for you – ask what you can do to manage your own MS”. What can you do to build physical and mental resilience and how can you optimise the reciprocal relationship with your MS team to make this happen? 

In reality, the concepts of r-squared (resilience x reciprocity) are what we are really trying to achieve via our Raising-the-Bar initiative as part of the MS Academy.  The only difference is there is another tier above the HCP-Patient relationship in that we need to interact with the NHS or healthcare system to make sure that the necessary resources or infrastructure are in place to implement r-squared. 

As people with MS do you think the issues raised in this post are relevant to you? How would you feel if we developed a formal agreement or contract for both parties to sign in relation to the HCP-patient partnership? The latter is not a new concept and is used widely in psychiatry. 

Crowdfunding: Please note I manage to walk over 3 km yesterday and it is looking likely I will be able to walk 5 km before the 31st of December.  It is not a done deal yet so if you haven’t supported my challenged there is still time 😉 We are getting very close to our fund-raising target so hopefully, this will be the final push and I can stop promoting fundraising. For those who have given already, thank you.  Click on the link to support Prof G’s ‘Bed-to-5km Challenge’  to support MS research. 

CoI: multiple

Twitter: @gavinGiovannoni                                      Medium: @gavin_24211

#MSCOVID19: round 2

Barts-MS rose-tinted-odometer: ★

Every now again it is worth covering a topic that is important for people living with MS (pwMS) a second time. Today’s topic is COVID-19 prehabilitation.

Today when I got on the  London Underground to come to work the carriages were ~75% full, i.e. very few empty seats and not much standing room. In other words, adequate social distancing was not possible. This was at 7.05 am, which means it will only be getting worse as we head to peak time. In an attempt to get the economy back on its feet and society working the government is encouraging people back to work, which is why we are seeing a second surge in COVID-19. The difference this time is the demographic is different. The average age of those with COVID-19 is younger and hence fewer people are needing hospitalisation and intensive care admission. However, this is likely to change as more and more people come down with COVID-19 in the next wave of infections. 

I sincerely hope that you are doing everything you can do to prepare for when you get COVID-19?

In the event of you getting severe COVID-19, there are a lot of things you can do to maximise your chances of surviving the infection and its immune complications. Prehabilitation is the term I have used to describe this programme. 

The following is a list of things I recommend you do:

  1. Smoker? If you are a smoker stop smoking. 
  2. If you have comorbidities make sure their management is optimised.
  3. Hypertension? Check your blood pressure yourself. If it is high see your GP. If you have established hypertension make sure your medications have been adjusted to render you normotensive.
  4. Diabetic? Make sure you adhere to your diabetic medication and be extra-vigilant with your glucose monitoring. You may need to check in with your diabetic nurse or diabetologist for advice if your blood glucose levels are all over the place. 
  5. Obese? Maybe it is time to get back on that diet and lose some weight? I would recommend looking into intermittent fasting and avoiding processed and ultra-processed foods. There are no magic diets. You need to find one that is suitable for your lifestyle, culture and metabolism. 
  6. Alcohol misuse? If you drink more than the national guidelines try and cut back on your excessive drinking? If you have a drinking problem and need help please speak to your GP. 
  7. Asthmatic? How is your asthma control? If you have bronchospasm you may need to get your meds/inhalers changed. You don’t want to have poorly controlled asthma when you get COVID-19. 
  8. Sleep-deprived or sleep disorders? It is important you optimise the amount of sleep you are getting. Sleep deprivation is associated with multiple poor health outcomes. PwMS are more likely than the general population to have a sleep disorder. If you use sedatives to sleep you may want to try and wean these as they can affect respiratory function if and when you get COVID-19.
  9. Exercise? There is no doubt that being deconditioned or unfit is a risk factor for a poor outcome from many serious diseases. If you are unfit this would be an opportune time to start exercising with the aim of increasing your fitness. For those of you who are mobile, I have suggested the couch-to-5 programme in the past. If you are not mobile there are upper body exercises that you can do. Ideally, an exercise programme should be personalised with a physiotherapist, but if this is not possible there are pragmatic ways of getting going on your own.
  10. Breathing exercises: A lot of clinicians are instructing the general population to start doing deep breathing exercises to increase the ventilation of the little-used parts of the lung. This can be done before or more importantly after you develop COVID-19. 
  11. Mental health: Anxiety and depression are stressors in themselves and will affect how your body responds to infection. It is important that if you are anxious and/or depressed you get this treated. Exercise, mindfulness (meditation) and cognitive behavioural therapy have all been shown to reduce anxiety and improve depression. These are things you can do yourself. I am aware that it may be hard to address depression and anxiety during the lockdown, but there are things you can do to help yourself; but, if you think you need help can please reach out to your general practitioner and/or MS team.
  12. Pulse oximeter: if you live alone and get COVID-19 I would recommend having access to a pulse oximeter to monitor the oxygen levels in your blood in the case you get COVID-19 pneumonia and are asked to stay at home. It is clear that many people with COVID-19 drop their blood oxygen levels without being aware of it.
  13. Advanced directives / Living wills: It is important to prepare for things in advance. If you did get severe COVID-19 and needed to go to ITU, possibly be ventilated and receive advanced life support. Is that what you would want? If it is not, make sure this is documented formally with your general practitioner and is included in your medical records. Also, let your family know what your wishes are. It may be a good time to update your will and instructions for your family in the event of you getting severe COVID-19 and passing away. You may want to prepare a folder summarising your medical condition, including your advanced directive, with all the necessary contact details of your next of kin. If you do get COVID-19 and are admitted to the hospital. Also, make a list of things you will need to take to hospital in the event of you getting COVID-19; please don’t forget your mobile charger. Please remember visitors are not allowed for COVID-19 patients so having a functioning mobile phone is an important way of keeping in contact with your family and friends.

CoI: multiple

Twitter: @gavinGiovannoni 

Medium: @gavin_24211

#MSCOVID19: bring it on

How is your COVID-19 prehabilitation going?

We are close to 4 months into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and two months since my blog post and my MS-Selfie microsite entry explaining how to prepare yourself for COVID-19. Are you ready? 

Despite being redeployed to general medicine during which time I was exposed to COVID-19 patients I didn’t get infected with the virus. I am anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody negative. However, I spent the last 3 months prehabilitating myself to get myself ready in case I get COVID-19. I am a strong believer in walking-the-talk and setting an example for my patients; you can’t tell your patients to do something for their general health if you are not prepared to do it yourself. 

  1. I have put in place an advanced directive with my wife and we are in the process of redoing our wills. I have also decided not to cancel my life insurance policy, which I was meant to do in April.  
  2. I have purchased a pulse oximeter for home monitoring of my oxygen saturation so that if I did get COVID-19 and had to self-manage and self-monitor at home I could do it with confidence.
  3. I have purchased a battery pack for my mobile phone if I need to be admitted to hospital and have a spare mobile phone charger at hand in case my main charger malfunctions or goes missing. I also have a back-up old mobile phone for the same reason.
  4. As for comorbidities; I have managed to get my BMI below 24, which is the first time in about 10 years that I have done this. 
  5. I have flattened the area under my insulin curve by being on a low carbohydrate diet. My last fasting blood glucose was 2.7mmol/L. I intermittent fast at least twice a week. I am keto-adapted and feel more alert as a result. 
  6. I am now normotensive with a resting blood pressure of around 116/ 78mmHg.
  7. I exercise 4-5 times a week and even ran a half-marathon last weekend albeit a South London meander. The latter was in response to a challenge from a good friend of mine who did the same in Orlando, Florida.  He now wants me to run a marathon with him on the original course from Marathon to Athens as a treat to ourselves once we survive and get out the other side of the pandemic.
  8. I am not sleep-deprived; I am getting 6-7 hours a sleep a night which beats the 4-5 hours I used to sleep. 
  9. I am vitamin D, zinc and magnesium replete from taking supplements.
  10. I have a natural suntan from spending between 6-8 hours a week outdoors; running, working in the garden, walking our dog who sadly passed away a few weeks ago, or sipping a G&T before sundown.
  11. I do breathing exercises (stacking) once or twice a day in my office.
  12. I am less anxious than before. Why?
    • I have stopped watching the news in the evening
    • I don’t read a daily newspaper 
    • I only read specific articles from newspapers I subscribe to (selective reading)
    • I restrict my consumption of social media feeds to specific times of the day
    • I am spending a lot of time in the garden
    • I am listening to more music than I used to, which is very relaxing. I have recently discovered Melody Gardot and American jazz singer who is my current favourite and I have fallen back in love with Bob Marley.
  13. I am practising social distancing and adopting the personal hygiene recommendations of the government.

I am as ready as I will ever be to get COVID-19. I think I have given myself the best chance of (1) having mild disease, (2) staying out of the hospital, (3) and in the event of getting severe COVID-19 of surviving. In the unlikely event of dying from COVID-19, I have made some preparations to provide for my family and to make it easier for them. I also have personal ambitions for what I plan to do when we get over the pandemic.

It is clear that there are some risk factors that you cannot modify in a three month period when it comes to getting severe COVID-19 and potentially dying from it. The study below from colleagues in my hospital show just how the BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) community in East London are bearing the brunt of this pandemic. I suspect it is not because they are BAME but is due to social determinants of health, which will require a new political order and will to address over the next few decades. Sadly I am not convinced the current British government and leadership are up to the task.

Apea et al. Ethnicity and outcomes in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 infection in East London: an observational cohort study. MedRxIV doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127621

Background: Preliminary studies suggest that people from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds experience higher mortality from COVID-19 but the underlying reasons remain unclear. 

Methods: Prospective analysis of registry data describing patients admitted to five acute NHS Hospitals in east London, UK for COVID-19. Emergency hospital admissions with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 aged 16 years or over were included. Data, including ethnicity, social deprivation, frailty, patient care and detailed risk factors for mortality, were extracted from hospital electronic records. Multivariable survival analysis was used to assess associations between ethnic group and mortality accounting for the effects of age, sex and various other risk factors. Results are presented as hazard ratios (HR) or odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. 

Findings: 1996 adult patients were admitted between 1st March and 13th May 2020. After excluding 259 patients with missing ethnicity data, 1737 were included in our analysis of whom 511 had died by day 30 (29%). 538 (31%) were from Asian, 340 (20%) Black and 707 (40%) white backgrounds. Compared to white patients, those from BAME backgrounds were younger, with differing co-morbidity profiles and less frailty. Asian and black patients were more likely to be admitted to intensive care and to receive invasive ventilation (OR 1.54, [1.06-2.23]; p=0.023 and 1.80 [1.20-2.71]; p=0.005, respectively). After adjustment for age and sex, patients from Asian (HR 1.49 [1.19-1.86]; p<0.001) and black (HR 1.30 [1.02-1.65]; p=0.036) backgrounds were more likely to die. These findings persisted across a range of risk-factor adjusted analyses. 

Interpretation: Patients from Asian and Black backgrounds are more likely to die from COVID-19 infection despite controlling for all previously identified confounders. Higher rates of invasive ventilation in intensive care indicate greater acute disease severity. Our analyses suggest that patients of Asian and Black backgrounds suffered disproportionate rates of premature death from COVID-19.

CoI: none

#MSCOVID19: how to prepare for getting COVID-19

Is there anything you can do to prepare for when you get COVID-19?

If you live in the UK you will have realised by now that the government plans to extend the tail of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic to allow herd immunity to develop and at the same time protecting the most vulnerable people from getting COVID-19 by shielding. I have already said this strategy is dangerous and likely to be very leaky and will result in a lot of excess deaths. 

What this means is that most of us (~80%) will become infected with SARS-CoV-2 at some point in the next 6-18 months and a significant proportion of us who are infected with the virus will get symptomatic disease or COVID-19. Therefore you should prepare yourself for getting COVID-19 and potentially severe COVID-19. 

If you did get severe COVID-19 is there anything you can do to maximise your chances of surviving the infection and its immune complications? Preparing for a physiological stressor like COVID-19 is called prehabilitation. Prehabilitation is usually used for patients about to have major elective surgery with the objective of reducing the chances of operative and post-operative complications. 

So if you have multiple sclerosis a COVID-19 prehabilitation programme makes sense. The following is a list of things I recommend you do:

  1. Smoker? If you are a smoker stop smoking. Smokers are 14 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than non-smokers. If this figure doesn’t scare you into stopping smoking nothing will. 
  2. If you have comorbidities make sure their management is optimised.
  3. Hypertension? Check your blood pressure yourself. If it is high see your GP. If you have established hypertension make sure your medications have been adjusted to render you normotensive.
  4. Diabetic? Make sure you adhere to your diabetic medication and be extra-vigilant with your glucose monitoring. You may need to check in with your diabetic nurse or diabetologist for advice if your blood glucose levels are all over the place. 
  5. Obese? Maybe it is time to get back on that diet and lose some weight? 
  6. Alcohol misuse? If you drink more than the national guidelines is COVID-19 lockdown not time to try and cut back on your excessive drinking? If you have a drinking problem and need help please speak to your GP. 
  7. Asthmatic? How is your asthma control? If you have bronchospasm you may need to get your meds/inhalers changed. You don’t want to have poorly controlled asthma when you get COVID-19. 
  8. Sleep-deprived or sleep disorders? It is important you optimise the amount of sleep you are getting. Sleep deprivation is associated with multiple poor health outcomes. PwMS are more likely than the general population to have a sleep disorder. If you use sedatives to sleep you may want to try and wean these as they can affect respiratory function if and when you get COVID-19.
  9. Diet? This is a good time to review your diet to see if you can improve it. A healthy balanced diet with as little processed and ultra-processed food is what you should be aiming for. 
  10. Exercise? There is no doubt that being deconditioned or unfit is a risk factor for a poor outcome from many serious diseases. If you are unfit and in lockdown, this would be an opportune time to start exercising with the aim of increasing your fitness. For those of you who are mobile, I have suggested the couch-to-5 programme in the past. If you are not mobile there are upper body exercises that you can do. Ideally, an exercise programme should be personalised with a physiotherapist, but if this is not possible there are pragmatic ways of getting going on your own.
  11. Breathing exercises: A lot of clinicians are instructing the general population to start doing deep breathing exercises to increase the ventilation of the little-used parts of the lung. This can be done before or more importantly after you develop COVID-19. I would recommend watching the video below. 
  12. Mental health: Anxiety and depression are stressors in themselves and will affect how your body responds to infection. It is important that if you are anxious and/or depressed you get this treated. Exercise, mindfulness (meditation) and cognitive behavioural therapy have all been shown to reduce anxiety and improve depression. These are things you can do yourself. I am aware that it may be hard to address depression and anxiety during the lockdown, but there are things you can do to help yourself; but, if you think you need help can please reach out to your general practitioner and/or MS team.
  13. Advanced directives / Living wills: It is important to prepare for things in advance. If you did get severe COVID-19 and needed to go to ITU, possibly be ventilated and receive advanced life support. Is that what you would want? If it is not, make sure this is documented formally with your general practitioner and is included in your medical records. Also, let your family know what your wishes are. It may be a good time to update your will and instructions for your family in the event of you getting severe COVID-19 and passing away. You may want to prepare a folder summarising your medical condition, including your advanced directive, with all the necessary contact details of your next of kin. If you do get COVID-19 and are admitted to the hospital. Also, make a list of things you will need to take to hospital in the event of you getting COVID-19; please don’t forget your mobile charger. Please remember visitors are not allowed for COVID-19 patients so having a functioning mobile phone is an important way of keeping in contact with your family and friends.

Are there things I have left off this list? If you have MS and have already had COVID-19 is there anything you can advise your fellow patients about what they should be doing to prepare for when they get COVID-19? I am particularly interested in hearing about your personal hospital experiences.

I will also load this post on the COVID-19 section of MS-Selfie.

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