Do no harm

Primum non-nocere is a Latin phrase that means “first, do no harm”. 

On the tube this morning I recognised one of our medical students reading Henry Marsh’ book “Do no harm”.  He is a semi-retired neurosurgeon, turned author, who uses his past patients to discuss ethical dilemmas and to criticise the NHS. His book does showcase the life of a surgeon, warts and all.  It is clear that to be a good neurosurgeon you have to be a team player. In surgery, it is critical to get the clinical decision-making correct, i.e. when and when not to operate. Surgery is also a technical speciality above all else; from the age of about 55 a surgeon’s skills deteriorate so it is best to be operated on by someone who is in their prime. In short, if you make the wrong clinical decision and you get things wrong technically then you will get a suboptimal outcome; i.e. you will do harm. 

I remember from very early on in my medical school career being told to do no harm. It is important to understand that this phrase dates back from a bygone era; an era when we hardly had any treatments that worked. 

Wikipedia: It is often said that the exact phrase “First do no harm” is a part of the original Hippocratic oath. Although the phrase does not appear in the AD 245 version of the oath, similar intentions are vowed by, “I will abstain from all intentional wrong-doing and harm”. The phrase “primum non nocere” is believed to date from the 17th century. Another equivalent phrase is found in Epidemics, Book I, of the Hippocratic school: “Practice two things in your dealings with disease: either help or do not harm the patient”. The exact phrase is believed to have originated with the 19th-century English surgeon Thomas Inman. 

In the modern era, we have to walk a tightrope of treating people to prevent future harm from a specific disease, knowing well that a small number of patients will be harmed from the side effects of the treatment. In other words, modern medicine has become a balancing act between the outcome of a population of patients at the expense of a small number of patients with adverse events. 

In the MS space, natalizumab epitomises this dilemma. Natalizumab is one of our most effective DMTs; it is very effective, easy to use and has few adverse events, which are uncommon. Unfortunately, however, in JC virus-positive individuals it may result in PML  a life-threatening infection of the brain. A lot has been done to derisk this complication, but unfortunately, there are still pwMS developing PML as a complication of natalizumab.

One industry analyst said to me that he had no idea why natalizumab was still on the market. He felt it should have been withdrawn after the PML crisis emerged. I said to this individual that he clearly hasn’t seen the impact that natalizumab has on people with MS’ lives. Natalizumab is a truly a transformative drug, which is why I refer to the treatment of MS as being represented by two eras; pre- and post-natalizumab. 

It is clear that pwMS understand that to maximise outcomes for pwMS some individuals have to pay the price of suffering adverse events. This is why it is not surprising that pwMS are prepared to take greater risks than their risk-averse neurologists (see below). I recall working with a rheumatologist who made the point that if he didn’t have a few of his patients dying each year from the complications of his treatment decisions then he was not treating his patients actively enough. The corollary is that a rheumatologist without a body count is being too conservative. 

Could the same analogy be levelled at neurologists? I think yes. I am still seeing far too many pwMS for second or third opinions who are very disabled from watchful waiting, slow escalation or sideways switching when they should have been treated with high efficacy treatments years ago. We really need to change the behaviour of MSologists from being risk-averse to becoming risk-takers. This also means pulling no punches and telling pwMS how bad MS really is and that to maximise your outcome you need to treat the disease effectively early on. 

At Barts-MS we are taking this principle to the extreme with our #AttackMS trial. As always the ideas underpinning this trial are already being adopted by our team so that by the time we get the trial funded and up and running we may not be able to do the study because we would have lost equipoise. 

Wikipedia: Clinical equipoise, also known as the principle of equipoise, provides an ethical basis for medical research that involves assigning patients to different treatment arms of a clinical trial. In short, clinical equipoise means that there is genuine uncertainty in the expert medical community over whether a treatment will be beneficial. 

I would be interested to know the MS Community’s opinions on the #AttackMS trial

Heesen et al. Risk perception in natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis patients and their neurologists. Mult Scler. 2010 Dec;16(12):1507-12. 

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab is associated with the potentially life-threatening side-effect progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Little is known about patients’ and physicians’ risk estimates and attitudes towards natalizumab treatment.

METHODS: Consecutive natalizumab-treated patients (n = 69) and neurologists (n = 66) in two centres and cooperating private practices received an evidence-based three-page information leaflet about natalizumab-associated PML and an evaluation sheet.

RESULTS: After reading the information, patients were significantly more likely than physicians to intend continuation of natalizumab treatment and willing to accept higher risks of PML: 49% of physicians would stop treatment at a PML risk of 2:10,000 or lower, while only 17% of patients would do so (p < 0.001). This difference could not be explained by risk calculation abilities or lack of understanding. Both groups overestimated natalizumab treatment effects.

CONCLUSION: Patients had a significantly worse perception of multiple sclerosis as a malignant disease. We conclude that patients were willing to accept a higher risk of PML than neurologists. Coherent with their perception of risks and benefits, patients were also more willing to continue treatment. Open information about treatment-related risks is appreciated and might support shared decision making.

CoI: multiple

The Time-to-Think DMT

At an MS Masters Forum in Rome yesterday I was teaching MSologists and MS clinical nurse specialists using a recently created board game, which I like to think of as being MS Monopoly. MS monopoly is based on a game of chance that lets you discuss case scenarios and make treatment choices. Then you roll a dice, which determines the outcome of your choice. 

Two things emerge from playing the game. Firstly, how choosing an immune reconstitution (IRT) addresses so many of the treatment aims and longterm issues of safety. The question I ask is why aren’t the IRTs dominating the treatment landscape?

Secondly, it became clear how many times natalizumab was considered as a treatment option and discarded because of its PML risk. From yesterday’s discussions it clear to me that natalizumab is the ‘time-to-think’ DMT, i.e. you start someone on natalizumab for 6-12 months whilst you make the necessary long-term decisions. This may be necessary to wait for lymphopaenia to recover, to complete a vaccination programme (e.g. the three-dose HPV polyvalent vaccine), to wait to get the all-clear on a previously-treated malignancy, to prevent rebound on stopping fingolimod so that the woman with MS can fall pregnant, or to complete a diagnostic work-up. The latter indication underpins our #AttackMS trial design.

Another indication for natalizumab is to prevent CNS adverse events associated with cancer immunotherapy. I recently recommended that a patient with MS who had disseminated bowel cancer and was about to start an immune checkpoint inhibitor go onto natalizumab despite being JCV positive to prevent exacerbation of her MS. The rationale being that the polyclonal activation of her T-cells in the periphery, including her autoimmune cells responsible for her MS, would not traffic to the brain and spinal cord and cause an MS relapse. The downside of this strategy is that if she had occult secondaries in her CNS then natalizumab will prevent her T-cells finding and clearing these cells. As bowel cancer rarely metastasizes to the CNS we thought this was a risk worth taking. Last I heard she was doing well from the MS perspective, but not that well in relation to her bowel cancer. 

I am sure natalizumab will prevent the CNS complications associated with CAR-T cell therapies. Could this be a repurposing opportunity for natalizumab?

What makes natalizumab so uniquely special as a DMT are the observations that it has the most rapid onset of action of all the DMTs, it has very high efficacy, its mode of action can be reversed with plasma exchange and natalizumab does not cause systemic immunosuppression. The only downside of natalizumab therapy is the long-term PML and other CNS infection risk and the emerging CNS lymphoma risk. These are all due to reduced CNS immune surveillance. The fact that extended interval dosing (EID) reduces the PML risk by over 80% suggests natalizumab may make a resurgence and all these CNS side effects may be preventable. However, for this to happen we need to be able to prescribe natalizumab more liberally as a first-line treatment for active MS. If anyone from Biogen is reading this blog post can you please ask the powers that be in Biogen to consider asking the EMA to reconsider natalizumab’s label? By not doing this you are denying many pwMS access to natalizumab, albeit for a short period of time as highlighted above.

The good news is that the EMA has accepted the EID data and it is now in natalizumab’s summary of product characteristics. 

New text in the EMA’s SmPC: In a pre-specified, retrospective analysis of US anti-JCV antibody-positive natalizumab patients (TOUCH registry), the risk of PML was compared between patients treated with the approved dosing interval and patients treated with extended interval dosing as identified in the last 18 months of exposure (EID, average dosing intervals of approximately 6 weeks). The majority (85%) of patients dosed with EID had received the approved dosing for ≥1 year prior to switching to EID. The interim analysis showed a lower risk of PML in patients treated with EID (hazard ratio = 0.06 95% CI of hazard ratio = 0.01- 0.22). The efficacy of natalizumab, when administered with EID, has not been established, and therefore the benefit/risk balance of EID is unknown (see section 4.4).

For those interested, I have included the latest PML figures from Biogen.

CoI: multiple

De novo PML on ocrelizumab

In my career as a neurologist, I have seen three patients who developed PML (progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy) without any apparent risk factors apart from being old. They were all over 70. Prior to the HIV epidemic, about 1 in 10 patients with PML did not have an obvious underlying risk factor except for age or immunosenescence of the elderly.  Immunosenescence is the term immunologists use to describe malfunctioning of the immune system with ageing.

Based on the fact that even ‘normal’ elderly people have a very small risk of getting PML, it comes as no surprise that age is an emerging PML risk factor in MS, and explains why relatively safe DMTs have been associated with rare cases of PML. The last case of DMF-associated PML, who had a total lymphocyte count above 500, was in her sixties and old-age partially explains the first de novo case of PML on ocrelizumab (see below). 

We received the notification from Roche today describing a case of PML in a patient treated with ocrelizumab as first-line therapy, who also had a mild lymphopaenia. The question you will be asking is why is a 76-year-old MSer being exposed to such a potent immunosuppressive agent?  I don’t know. Maybe he had very active MS and his neurologist wanted to offer him a highly effective DMT first-line (flipping the pyramid). 

As what has happened with alemtuzumab usage in the US we are likely to see a more severe and unexpected adverse event profile in MSers who are older on ocrelizumab. Being older means they are more likely to have comorbidities, immunosenescence and less biological reserve to deal with serious and life-threatening infections. 

Am I concerned about this case? Yes and no. Yes, in the sense that I would think twice about using such a potent immunosuppressive agent in an elderly person with MS. No, in that de novo PML is rare with anti-CD20 treatment and is highly unlikely to be a problem in younger people with MS. 

On reflection, cladribine would have been a better high-efficacy DMT for this patient. The fact that cladribine is a selective IRT (immune reconstitution therapy) and does not cause longterm immunosuppression makes it a safer agent in this population group. Unfortunately, when this patient was started on ocrelizumab oral cladribine was not licensed in the US and the current FDA label discourages first-line use of oral cladribine. So even if cladribine was available at the time it is unlikely that it would have been prescribed. An interesting topic that is emerging in the field is the management of MS in the elderly, including the management of highly-active MS in this population group. Maybe we should put this topic forward for one of our future triMS.online conferences?

ROCHE STATEMENT

In the interest of patient safety, and as part of our ongoing commitment to transparency, I am forwarding this information.

  • We are aware of a report of a confounded case of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in a multiple sclerosis (MS) patient in the United States of America who was treated with Ocrevus®▼(ocrelizumab). The potential contribution of Ocrevus treatment to this PML case is difficult to quantify but cannot be ruled out.
  • The patient has a long-standing history of MS. They were previously untreated and hence Ocrevus was their first disease-modifying therapy (DMT). The patient was treated with Ocrevus for two years, with the initiation of treatment in July 2017 and the last dose was administered in February 2019.
  • The treating physician has reported this as a confounded case of PML. Contributing factors (confounders) reported by the physician are the patient’s age (78) with potential immunosenescence, low absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) prior to treatment with Ocrevus (max CTCAE grade 1, no subtypes available), as well as low ALC (max grade 2), low CD4+ (max grade 2) and low CD8+ counts during treatment, with Ocrevus as a probable contributor.
  • Roche follow the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) criteria to establish the diagnosis of PML, in addition to consultation with an external advisory panel of experts.
  • Patient safety is Roche’s highest priority, and, consistent with our safety reporting processes, we report to health authorities in accordance with standard pharmacovigilance processes.
  • Roche is in contact with the treating physician to help evaluate the case, providing support and expertise where appropriate. 
  • The overall benefit/risk for Ocrevus remains unchanged at this time. As of 30th September 2019, more than 130,000 people with MS have been treated with Ocrevus globally (1). To date, there have been no unconfounded cases of PML reported in patients treated with Ocrevus. All seven previous confirmed PML cases of patients treated with Ocrevus were confounded by and attributed to the previous DMT (carry-over cases). This is the first PML case in a patient treated with Ocrevus where the cause of the PML, although confounded, has not been attributed to a previous DMT.

The recommendations relating to PML in the approved product labelling for Ocrevus remain unchanged. Physicians should be vigilant for early signs and symptoms of PML, which can include any new-onset, or worsening of neurological signs or symptoms, as these can be similar to an MS relapse. If PML is suspected, withhold dosing with Ocrevus.

Please refer to the summary of product characteristics for full prescribing information here.

For ease of reference, we have collated an overview of all confirmed PML cases to date (October 2019):

Confirmed case no.CountryReportedSettingConfounding factor(s)
1GermanyMay 2017Compassionate Use programmePrior DMT (Natalizumab)
2CanadaApril 2018Post-marketingPrior DMT (Fingolimod)
3USAMay 2018Post-marketingPrior DMT (Natalizumab)
4USAJune 2018Post-marketingPrior DMT (Natalizumab)
5USAJuly 2018Post-marketingPrior DMT (Natalizumab)
6LuxembourgSeptember 2018Post-marketingPrior DMT (Natalizumab)
7USAFebruary 2019Post-marketingPrior DMT (Natalizumab)
8USAOctober 2019Post-marketingAge (78) & low lymphocyte counts prior to, and during Tx

Mills and  Mao-Draayer. Aging and lymphocyte changes by immunomodulatory therapies impact PML risk in multiple sclerosis patients. Mult Scler. 2018 Jul;24(8):1014-1022. doi: 10.1177/1352458518775550. 

New potent immunomodulatory therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are associated with increased risk for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). It is unclear why a subset of treated patients develops PML, but patient age has emerged as an important risk factor. PML is caused by the JC virus and aging is associated with immune senescence, which increases susceptibility to infection. With the goal of improving PML risk stratification, we here describe the lymphocyte changes that occur with disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) associated with high or moderate risk toward PML in MS patients, how these changes compare to immune aging, and which measures best correlate with risk. We reviewed studies examining how these therapies alter patient immune profiles, which revealed the induction of changes to lymphocyte number and/or function that resemble immunosenescence. Therefore, the immunosuppressive activity of these MS DMTs may be enhanced in the context of an immune system that is already exhibiting features of senescence.

CoI: multiple

PML carryover onto ocrelizumab

I have just received the following information from Roche, which is reassuring in that

  • As of July 3rd 2019, the Roche can confirm there have been no new carry-over cases of PML in MS patients treated with ocrelizumab since their last update in April 2019. The seventh case was reported in March 2019.
  • As of April 2019, over 100,000 people have been treated with ocrelizumab globally, within a combination of clinical trial and post-marketing settings.
  • No unconfounded cases of PML with ocrelizumab have been reported to date.
  • Of the seven cases of carry-over PML, none were reported as fatal at the last point of follow up (Feb 2019).

Information relating to all carry-over cases has been reported to regulatory agencies in compliance with agreed pharmacovigilance processes.

The recommendations relating to PML in the approved product labelling for ocrelizumab remain unchanged. HCPs should be vigilant for early signs and symptoms of PML, which can include any new-onset, or worsening of neurological signs or symptoms, as these can be similar to an MS relapse. If PML is suspected, withhold dosing with ocrelizumab.

Summary of carry-over PML cases to date (July 2019):

Carry-over caseCountryReportedSettingCarry-over from
1GermanyMay 2017Compassionate Use programmeNatalizumab
2CanadaApril 2018Post-marketingFingolimod
3USAMay 2018Post-marketingNatalizumab
4USAJune 2018Post-marketingNatalizumab
5USAJuly 2018Post-marketingNatalizumab
6LuxembourgSeptember 2018Post-marketingNatalizumab
7USAFebruary 2019Post-marketingNatalizumab

Roche are sharing this information for full transparency and hope you find this useful.

Japan epicentre of an Asian MS epidemic

I am about to return from a short MS meeting in Tokyo. This was my first exposure to Japan and Japanese culture. It is everything and more than I expected.

I am beginning to get a sense of what ikigai means. Ikigai translates ‘to a reason for being, encompassing joy, a sense of purpose and meaning and a feeling of well-being’. Ikigai derives from iki, meaning life and kai, meaning the realisation of hopes and expectations.

I first learnt about ikigai from the ‘Blue Zones’, a book by Dan Buettner, on the secrets of the world’s ‘happiest places’, where people are super-agers. One of the blue zones is Okinawa, a subtropical Japanese island to the South of Japan. Some of the philosophy underpinning happiness and super-ageing is cultural and is specific to the Japanese culture.

The lessons of the blue zones are applicable to our Brain Health initiative and I would urge you to read the book. Who knows it may change the way you want to live your life regardless of whether or not you have MS.

It is clear that MS is a problem in Japan and the incidence and prevalence is rising. Why? Japan is now one of the epicentres of the global MS epidemic; i.e. an area of the world where MS has gone from a low to a medium incidence area, similar to Iran, and will quite soon become a high incidence area. The clue to this is the rapidly increasing sex ratio of females to males that is now over 3:1.

As an MS community, we need to study these epicentres to see if we can pin down the cause of MS and put in place robust prevention trials. Japan has rapidly westernised and the Japanese neurologists I spoke to think this is the reason why the incidence of MS is increasing in Japan. Not sure I buy this at face value. What is it about the Western lifestyle that is causing MS? Could it be childhood obesity? Processed carbohydrate/sugar consumption? Smoking? Change in the epidemiology of EBV infection; a different strain, later infection, more infectious mononucleosis? Less sunshine and lower vitamin D levels?

It is interesting that Japanese neurologists think MS is more benign in Japan than elsewhere. I am not sure why they think this. All the evidence I saw this weekend points to Japanese MS being identical to Western European MS. Unfortunately for Japanese MSers, they have access to fewer DMTs and there are only two highly effective DMTs licensed in Japan, i.e. fingolimod and natalizumab. There is also a much higher JCV seroprevalence rate in Japan of close to 80% with a higher proportion of people with a high anti-JCV index. This makes the risk of PML potentially much higher in Japan. For example, there have been 4 cases of non-carryover PML on fingolimod, which equates to a PML rate of about 1 in 1,000 to 1,500 per fingolimod-treated MSer. This is an order of magnitude higher than the non-carryover PML rate on fingolimod outside of Japan and clearly needs further study.

Another factor is the reluctance of Japanese neurologists to use off-label treatments, for example, subcutaneous cladribine and rituximab. The reasons for this are multiple but mainly relate to lack of reimbursement and cultural factors. It was also clear that the Japanese neurologist, similar to British neurologists, are quite conservative and prefer a step-care approach. The Japanese are particularly concerned that because of their ancestry they may respond differently to DMTs, which have been tried and tested in other populations. In other words, they need data on the safety and efficacy of specific DMTs in their own Japanese MS population. To get a drug licensed in Japan Pharma has to trials in Japan.

As a result of the JCV problem extended interval dosing of natalizumab, also referred to as EID, and PML surveillance (3-monthly MRI monitoring) is very important for natalizumab-treated Japanese MSers. In fact, Japan is the one country that the derisking of PML for natalizumab is critical. Until other high-efficacy DMT arrive the Japanese are going to have to make do with fingolimod and natalizumab. In comparison, we are spoilt for choice in the UK and other high-income countries; we have forgotten what it was like to manage MS before the avalanche of new DMTs.

I have uploaded my slides from Japan on my slideshare site; you are welcome to download them and repurpose the slides for your own uses. I presented our #AttackMS study as a way to illustrate how important time matters in MS. I am not sure the Japanese neurologists agreed with such an active approach to treating MS. Do you?

Houzen et al.  Consistent increase in the prevalence and female ratio of multiple sclerosis over 15 years in northern Japan. Eur J Neurol. 2018 Feb;25(2):334-339.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) is considered to be lower in East Asia than in Western countries. An increasing trend has been reported globally for the prevalence of MS. We investigated the changes in the prevalence and clinical characteristics of MS in the Tokachi province of Hokkaido, northern Japan from 2001 to 2016.

METHODS: Prevalence was determined on 31 March 2016. Data-processing sheets were collected from all MS-related institutions in Tokachi province. We applied Poser’s diagnostic criteria for MS as used in our previous three studies. Cases of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders were excluded.

RESULTS: In 2016, the crude MS prevalence was 18.6/100 000 (95% confidence interval, 14.3-23.8) in northern Japan. Over the last 15 years, the prevalence of MS in the same area was 8.1, 12.6 and 16.2 in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. The female:male ratio was 3.57, which increased from 2.63 in 2001. The ratios of primary progressive, relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS types were 2%, 84% and 14%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated a consistent increase in MS prevalence among the northern Japanese population, particularly in females, and relatively lower rates of progressive MS in northern Japan than in Western countries.

CoI: multiple

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